Recommendations
Insights computed from Atlas’ own data by a transparent rules engine. Each one shows its evidence, the calculation behind it and how confident Atlas is.
Licence terms to be confirmed for 355 datasets
Licence terms are being confirmed with the publisher. Atlas holds the data for scientific and internal use and shows the original attribution, but cannot grant bulk redistribution rights.
Evidence and method
- datasets without licence
- 355.00
- Calculation
- Datasets whose licence status is "unspecified by publisher".
- Sources
2 of 9 themes have no data yet
Atlas holds no records for: Blue Carbon, Fire & Climate. Seagrass and salt marsh would come from UNEP-WCMC global datasets; carbon projects from the Verra and Gold Standard registries; community projects from partner programmes.
Evidence and method
- Calculation
- Modules with zero mapped features.
- Sources
Restoration sites: where degradation is highest
4 of 12 assessed sites are rated highly degraded (Matsangoni 1, Eagle camp 1, NjIa ya Ndovu, Maganga). Recommended approaches: Enrichement planting (5), Assisted planting (7).
Evidence and method
- sites
- 12.00
- high degradation
- 4.00
- Calculation
- Counts of assessed degradation level and recommended approach.
- Sources
- tbp-lcpm-planted-sites
A large share of mapped mangrove lies close to planned LAPSSET development
18,676 ha of mangrove (54.1% of the mapped total) sits within 10 km of the LAPSSET development footprint (port area, Special Economic Zone, corridor, airport). This is the largest identified development pressure in the dataset.
Evidence and method
- share pct
- 54.10
- within 10km ha
- 18,676.00
- Calculation
- Ellipsoidal distance from each polygon representative point to the union of LAPSSET footprint geometries.
- Sources
- lamu-mangroves-species-formation-2019, lapsset-footprint, lapsset-port-area
Vegetation index fell in protection zone MIDA_2
NDVI in MIDA_2 declined from 0.649 (FY2023) to 0.536 (FY2025), a change of -0.113. A sustained fall can mean canopy loss, drought stress or harvesting.
Evidence and method
- block
- MIDA_2
- ndvi fy23
- 0.65
- ndvi fy25
- 0.54
- Calculation
- Difference of supplied NDVI values between fiscal years.
- Sources
- tbp-lcpm-nr-protection-zones
Vegetation index fell in protection zone MIDA_3
NDVI in MIDA_3 declined from 0.757 (FY2023) to 0.673 (FY2025), a change of -0.085. A sustained fall can mean canopy loss, drought stress or harvesting.
Evidence and method
- block
- MIDA_3
- ndvi fy23
- 0.76
- ndvi fy25
- 0.67
- Calculation
- Difference of supplied NDVI values between fiscal years.
- Sources
- tbp-lcpm-nr-protection-zones
Sea-turtle tracking data ends in 2018
4 tagged turtles contributed 1,406 fixes between 2017-05-21 and 2018-10-30. There is no later tracking in Atlas, so recent turtle movements and nesting use of Lamu and Kilifi waters are unknown.
Evidence and method
- tags
- 4.00
- fixes
- 1,406.00
- last fix
- 2018-10-30 17:38:04+00
- Calculation
- Min/max of satellite fix timestamps (assumed UTC).
- Sources
- ckp-turtle-tags-2017-2018
Impossible canopy-cover values were rejected in the field survey
3 plot(s) report canopy cover above 100% (largest 6070.0), which cannot be a percentage. Atlas rejected those values, kept the originals and flagged the plots.
Evidence and method
- valid
- 136.00
- rejected
- 3.00
- Calculation
- Range check 0–100 on every canopy-cover observation.
- Sources
- lamu-mangrove-field-survey
Most polygons are very small, but most area sits in large stands
63.2% of the 60,004 mapped polygons are under 0.1 ha, yet patches of 10 ha or more hold 52.4% of all mangrove area. Management and monitoring effort should focus on the large stands, while the small-patch tail needs checking against satellite imagery.
Evidence and method
- polygons
- 60,004.00
- tiny pct
- 63.20
- area in ge10ha pct
- 52.40
- Calculation
- Counts and sums of geodesic polygon areas grouped by size class.
- Sources
- lamu-mangroves-species-formation-2019
Field plots and the map: how well do they agree?
103 of 139 field plots fall on a mapped polygon; the dominant genus recorded on the ground matches the mapped formation in 52.4% of those (exact class label: 19.4%, because field and map name classes differently). 36 plots lie outside any mapped polygon.
Evidence and method
- plots
- 139.00
- on map
- 103.00
- agree exact
- 20.00
- agree genus
- 54.00
- genus agreement pct
- 52.40
- Calculation
- Point-in-polygon test of each field plot against the 2019 formation polygons; dominant genus (first genus named) compared between field label and map class.
- Sources
- lamu-mangroves-species-formation-2019, lamu-mangrove-field-survey
Mangrove close to villages is exposed to community use pressure
8,142 ha (23.6%) of mangrove lies within 2 km of a mapped village. Only 52 villages are mapped, so this is a lower bound.
Evidence and method
- share pct
- 23.60
- within 2km ha
- 8,142.00
- Calculation
- Ellipsoidal distance to the nearest mapped village.
- Sources
- lamu-mangroves-species-formation-2019, lamu-villages
Intertidal sand and mudflats cover about as much area as mangroves
Mapped sand and mudflats total 22,415 ha, compared with 34,514 ha of mangrove (ratio 0.65). Extensive mudflats beside mangroves are important feeding habitat and an expansion zone for natural colonisation.
Evidence and method
- mudflat ha
- 22,415.00
- mangrove ha
- 34,514.00
- Calculation
- Sum of geodesic areas of the two datasets.
- Sources
- lamu-sand-mudflats, lamu-mangroves-species-formation-2019
Mangrove cover is dominated by a few formations
Rhizophora dominant covers 41.8% of mapped mangrove area. Shannon evenness by area is 0.86 (0 = one class dominates, 1 = perfectly even), so the seascape is fairly even.
Evidence and method
- dominant
- Rhizophora dominant
- evenness
- 0.86
- share pct
- 41.77
- Calculation
- Shannon index H = -Σ p·ln p on area shares; evenness = H / ln(k).
- Sources
- lamu-mangroves-species-formation-2019
Net gain of mangrove since 1996
Global Mangrove Watch maps 52,354 ha of mangrove in Lamu seascape in 1996 and 53,174 ha in 2025: a net gain of 820 ha (1.6%), about 28 ha per year. This is the net balance of total mapped area; gains and losses inside the country can cancel out, so real loss may be larger.
Evidence and method
- last ha
- 53,174.00
- net pct
- 1.60
- first ha
- 52,354.00
- last year
- 2,025.00
- first year
- 1,996.00
- Calculation
- Sum of geodesic polygon areas per epoch, compared across years (Global Mangrove Watch v3.0, CC BY 4.0).
- Sources
- gmw-v4-1996-ke