Carbon assumptions used in scenarios
Illustrative low / central / high carbon stocks and capture rates, always shown as ranges and editable.
Atlas multiplies mapped area by an assumed carbon value. The area is measured; the carbon value is not. That is why every carbon figure is labelled illustrative.
Defaults
- Carbon stock (whole ecosystem, soil plus biomass): 400 / 700 / 1,000 tC per hectare (low / central / high). Published global averages are around 1,000 tC/ha with huge variation, so the lower values keep estimates cautious.
- Capture by restored forest: 2 / 5 / 10 tCO₂e per hectare per year (low / central / high), applied to the surviving fraction of planted area (default 70%).
- Conversion: tonnes of carbon × 44/12 = 3.667 gives tonnes of CO₂-equivalent.
Formulas
- Loss: hectares lost × stock × 3.667.
- Restoration: hectares × survival × rate × years.
- Offset target: hectares needed = target ÷ (rate × survival × years).
Limits. These formulas have no growth curve, no leakage or permanence adjustment, no uncertainty propagation, and they treat all mangrove alike. In the Scenario Lab you can overwrite every value.
Good practice. Replace the defaults with measured local values (soil cores, allometric biomass) before any public claim.
Related reading
More in Methodologies
- Spatial statistics: Moran's I and Getis-Ord Gi*
- Net change versus gross loss and gain
- How features are assigned to countries
- How Global Mangrove Watch maps are made
- Scenario Lab arithmetic
- How carbon project locations are established and checked
- How recommendations and briefs are generated
- Geodesic area and perimeter
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